The Dangerous Consequences of the 2021 West Bengal Election
I am seeing a string of social media posts asserting that the victory of the Trinamool Congress in the West Bengal election is solely due to the massive Muslim vote they received as a result of their appeasement of this community. Aware that the percentage of Muslims in West Bengal is far higher than the national average and there are three districts in the state with a Muslim majority, the posts claim this election, and the post-poll violence that followed, are portents of West Bengal moving toward becoming a Muslim majority state, with a consequent forced exodus of Hindus from the state (Actual numbers are not examined, which are 27% Muslims currently in West Bengal, versus 14% as the national average). Comparisons are made to Kashmir and the fate the Kashmiri Pandit community suffered in unjustly being forced into exile from their homeland. An essay of 2015, titled “The Muslim Takeover of West Bengal” by a person called Janet Levy is doing the rounds of social media, with many people not looking at the date and believing it to be an analysis of contemporary events. Levy, who has a history of pushing conspiracy theories regarding Muslims (such as claiming there is an undeniable Muslim plan to take over American democracy), does not display standards one would expect of quality professional journalism, offering no evidence to support her sweeping allegations on West Bengal, neither citing rigorous surveys nor any scholar of repute who has expertise in this matter.
The post-poll violence in the state is touted by these social media posts as further evidence of this fear proving to be true, reading it as a persecution of Hindus that has begun immediately after the election. As of now, it is not clear who is the guilty party in this violence, and neither side has a great reputation for violence-free behaviour. The BJP says the TMC is choosing to use power gained through electoral victory as a license for violence and intimidation. The TMC says the BJP is instigating violence in a quest to undermine the legitimacy of the election. Deaths in the violence are reported by both sides. We have to wait for more data to emerge to understand the true picture, and all one can say at this point is that this violence is reprehensible, must be condemned, and its instigators brought to justice. The new TMC government taking over in West Bengal must ensure the violence is quelled, the perpetrators identified, and punished irrespective of their party affiliation.
To those who fear this Muslim takeover of West Bengal, I offer a golden rule that should apply to forming conclusions on any such issue, “FOLLOW THE DATA!” One’s conclusions or allegations should be substantiated by data from a reliable source, and not rely on anecdotal memes and social media forwards. Even first-hand accounts can be misleading, given the well-established psychological phenomenon of confirmation bias that reveals how people tend to misinterpret observed data to align with established bias. Only rigorous surveys, scientifically implemented and designed to minimise the impact of bias, should be relied upon.
What does the data tell us on this issue? The most reliable source is the decadal census survey of India’s population carried out by the Government of India. The pre-Partition percentage of Muslims in West Bengal is estimated to be at about 29%. This fell sharply due to the mass movements caused by Partition, and the first census of independent India, in 1951, puts the number at 19.85% (Levy’s essay erroneously claims this figure to be 12%). The Muslim share of population continued to rise over the years, and the respective census data are 20.00% in 1961, 20.46% in 1971, 21.52% in 1981, 23.61% in 1991, 25.25% in 2001, and 27.01% in the latest census of 2011.
The pattern of decadal growth, showing a continued increase in the percentage of Muslim population, is largely explained by a higher fertility rate among Muslims, which is associated with their lower socio-economic status (for a comprehensive study on this lower socio-economic status of Muslims across India, see the Sachar Committee Report 2006). In 1981 and 1991, the decadal growth is more than double that of the previous decade, which could suggest that, in these two decades, immigration (legal and illegal) was a factor, over and above higher fertility rates, contributing to the overall growth rate. However, that substantive rate of rise in the growth rates has reversed in the two following decades and is showing signs of tapering off. The percentage of Hindus was at 78.7% in the first census of 1951 and was at 70.54% in the 2011 census.
Projections predict a return to pre-Partition percentages by 2041, with Muslims constituting a share of about 29% of the population. Shortly after that, with birth rates falling below the replacement rate across the country, India’s population is expected to peak at about 1.6 billion by 2048, and a fairly substantive decline setting in thereafter, with population dropping to about 1.09 billion at the end of this century.
By this, at peak levels, the percentage of the Muslim population will not exceed 30–31% while the Hindu population will not drop below 68–69%. The Hindu population will always be more than double the Muslim population, more affluent on average than the Muslims, and fear of a Muslim takeover through demographic majorities large enough to force an exodus of Hindus is a sheer fallacy. Comparisons to Kashmir are facile; the Kashmir Valley is an outlier whose demographic and political history bears no resemblance to that of any other Indian state.
There is a potential danger in the fallout from the West Bengal election, and it is not that of a Muslim takeover. It is that social media memes, unfounded in fact, spread, lend further virulence to existing biases, and sow increasing division, partisanship and distrust across the country. This is a disservice to the nation that will fetter its future. The worst part is that most of the people who spread these memes are privileged and have received a modern education where they would have received some training in scientific method and its need to substantiate conclusions with rigorous data.
So let me repeat, for emphasis, the golden rule, “FOLLOW THE DATA!” As N.R. Narayana Murthy, the former chairman of Infosys, is fond of repeating, “In God we trust. The rest must bring data to the table.”
